Cold Turkey Kenney: Oil-Addiction, Withdrawal and Alternatives in Alberta
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- Published on Thursday, 02 April 2020 23:44
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A Socialist Project e-bulletin ... No. 2043 ... April 3, 2020
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Cold Turkey Kenney: Oil-Addiction, Withdrawal and Alternatives in Alberta
Ingo Schmidt
Alberta Premier Jason Kenney’s messages were often inconsistent, and would certainly fail fact-checking, but they were very persuasive. Until recently. Uncertainties create demand for reassurance, and the reasons for uncertainty are plenty. Financial markets and oil prices are on a roller coaster, putting jobs, pensions, mortgage and student-debt payments at risk. A flood roaring through downtown Calgary, a wildfire blasting Fort McMurray, temperatures rising and precipitation reaching the volatility levels seen until recently only on the trading floors for stocks, derivatives and, of course, oil. In light of acute disasters and climate change more generally, can one really dismiss environmentalists’ claim that burning fossil fuels is the root-cause for these phenomena? If this claim can’t be dismissed, can one hang on to the dreams of oil-based prosperity?
One can, said Jason Kenney. He resigned his seat as MP in Ottawa, united the forces of fossil fuel counter-revolution under the banner of the UCP (United Conservative Party) and pledged to free Alberta from the... carbon-tax adopted by NDP Premier Rachel Notley’s government (backed by Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government in Ottawa). He could do this because he reassured Albertans that they are good, hard-working, laws-of-supply-and-demand-abiding people. That there would be prosperity if they got not only Notley, but also Justin Trudeau, Greta Thunberg and railway-blocking First Nations protestors off their backs. Such reassurance in times of uncertainty was more important than consistent and science-based policies.
As long as some oil revenue came in, the now Premier Kenney and his followers were on a high. But the revenue stream ran low even before the coronavirus ended a long-lasting stock market fever and sent oil prices to record lows. In fact, the provincial budget, released on the cusp of the corona crash, drew such a sharp line between tax-break-enjoying oil companies, on one side, and public services providing and using people, on the other side, that it ended the high for many of Kenney’s followers.
Oil prices falling below the break-even point of even the most efficient of Alberta’s tar sands projects forced Kenney into withdrawal. Rather than threatening Wexit if Trudeau doesn’t yield to Alberta’s free-oil-trade demands, he’s now desperate for every shot of relief money he can get from Ottawa. The value of his political capital went down as fast as share and oil prices fell.
With his reputation in shambles, he may seek to recover some of his buddies’ economic losses by redirecting even more tax money from public services to private coffers once the corona lockdown is over. However, the corona lockdown could also shift people’s priorities from pipeline dreams of unlimited market access, to life essentials like food, health and housing. Based on such priorities, opposition to the fossil-profits-for-a-few economy may grow, to be replaced by an ecological-and-social-damage-for-many economy… even in a province where oil-addiction runs deep and the organized opposition is next to non-existent.