Trump and the World Economy
- Details
- Published on Thursday, 21 February 2019 01:34
- Written by editor
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(((( T h e B u l l e t ))))~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A Socialist Project e-bulletin ... No. 1769 ... February 21, 2019
__________________________________________________________
Trump and the World Economy
Leo Panitch interviewed by Martin Thomas of Solidarity.
Martin Thomas (MT): I can see four main sorts of possible outcomes to be considered from Trump’s economic jousting.
One: it may reshape some deals, like NAFTA [the North American Free Trade Agreement] to the USA’s advantage or imagined advantage, but after a flurry relations in the world markets will settle down much as before.
Two: By generally shaking up trade relations, and putting pressure on some of China’s protectionist policies, economic life around the world may settle after the jousting into a more "globalized" form, more subject to world-market rules.
Three: The jousting leaves a world-market system operating in much the same way as now, but with the... USA now a rogue state on the edge of it rather than the pivotal state in the system. Maybe the system is organized around a new pivot, maybe China.
Four: The jousting begins a serious unravelling of the world-market order, a contraction of supply chains, a re-raising of trade barriers, a push to economic nationalism. The shift is moderate and limited for now, but escalates in the next big economic crisis.