Trump and the World Economy

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A Socialist Project e-bulletin ... No. 1769 ... February 21, 2019

Trump and the World Economy

Leo Panitch interviewed by Martin Thomas of Solidarity.

Martin Thomas (MT): I can see four main sorts of possible outcomes to be considered from Trump’s economic jousting.

One: it may reshape some deals, like NAFTA [the North American Free Trade Agreement] to the USA’s advantage or imagined advantage, but after a flurry relations in the world markets will settle down much as before.

Two: By generally shaking up trade relations, and putting pressure on some of China’s protectionist policies, economic life around the world may settle after the jousting into a more "globalized" form, more subject to world-market rules.

Three: The jousting leaves a world-market system operating in much the same way as now, but with the... USA now a rogue state on the edge of it rather than the pivotal state in the system. Maybe the system is organized around a new pivot, maybe China.

Four: The jousting begins a serious unravelling of the world-market order, a contraction of supply chains, a re-raising of trade barriers, a push to economic nationalism. The shift is moderate and limited for now, but escalates in the next big economic crisis.

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