An Iranian Classic: For the Continuation of the Dictatorship, Long Live Elections!
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- Published on Friday, 25 March 2016 00:30
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A Socialist Project e-bulletin .... No. 1238 .... March 25, 2016
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An Iranian Classic:
For the Continuation of the Dictatorship, Long Live Elections!
Araz Bağban
Iran's parliamentary elections for the Islamic Consultative Assembly were held in parallel with the elections for the Assembly of Experts on 26 February. Iran is one of the main actors of the ongoing wars and conflicts in the Middle East and has just recently overcome its long-standing nuclear crisis with the Western powers. Naturally, with these elections the internal dynamics of the Islamic regime was again at the centre of attention. The elections were discussed and analyzed based on two lists of alliances; a list formed by hardliners or ultra-conservatives and another formed by the reformist-backed pro-Rouhani moderate conservatives which are generally labeled ‘the reformists’ by the international media in the... context of these elections (this latter group also includes some unknown reformists).
According to the results, the seats of the next parliament are equally distributed between the two lists without taking into consideration independent MPs. Actually, it should be noted that ‘the reformists’ swept all 30 parliamentary seats in the capital city of Tehran. The final results in some regions, where a sufficient proportion of the popular vote has not been reached by the candidates, will be decided in the second round. However, it seems that the results from the second round also will not change the general distribution of the seats inside the parliament and independent MPs will determine which group is dominant.
It is worth emphasizing that the border between moderate and ultra conservatives is not very pronounced. Usually, the nature of the problems or events discussed in the parliament, the pressure from other organs of the state, and some similar factors we are familiar with given Iran's political order, can change the ideological spectrum of the parliament drastically. The story of the elections for the Assembly of Experts is not different from the parliamentary elections. The reformists-backed ‘moderate conservatives’ won fifteen out of sixteen seats in the capital Tehran, but generally lost the elections to hardliners in other regions.
The statistical distribution of the parliament's seats, with no major winner at first sight, can be interpreted regarding the process of the elections, the reformists’ attempts to receive a share of the power, and Rouhani's need for the parliament's support after securing the nuclear deal with the Western powers. Considering the age of the present supreme leader, Khamenei, the elections for the Assembly of Experts also reveals its importance, since this is the body that will elect Khamenei's successor. Therefore, before declaring the winner of the elections, we need to look at the nature and the process of the elections.
